问题描述：
跪求一遍次贷危机（金融危机）对中国影响的英文论文（3000 字左右）
问题解答：
我来补答
The subprime crisis to China's influence how, no one can give a definite answer. Because the answer to this question, still must clear two problems: one is the subprime crisis has seen the development of itself, Second is the subprime crisis, which mainly through channels, and affects the Chinese economy has what effect. This article attempts from the two aspects of the subprime crisis to specific analysis of the impact of China, and puts forward some corresponding measures.
A, the subprime crisis has not really see bottom
There is every indication of the subprime crisis, now still in development process, is far from over.
(a) as the subprime crisis, the American real estate prices eventually source not stabilises
Only when the subprime crisis as the fuse is the direct real estate prices eventually stabilises, real estate equity problems to provide support for mortgage-backed securities, the crisis will end. Real estate prices stabilises will eventually eliminate uncertainty, because the market is expected loss will no longer, but known, main source will be eliminated. When the credit market and capital market financing function will slowly back to normal, and the financial system to achieve stability.
But so far, far from American house prices of stabilising the trend. In the fourth quarter of 2007 housing purchase price OFHEO drop two consecutive quarters, and compared by expanding. The fourth quarter of the 50 states in 49 states have appeared name in house prices, suggesting that prices nationwide weakness. According to the Case - Shiller index, since 2000 to housing adjustment of 2006 mid-term, before 10 cities 126.3% price has risen, and adjust range is only by 11.4 per cent. Worse housing supply and demand gap still at high level (see chart 1), stock prices caused by high downward pressure to drop further price, so the space is large. From the historical experience, American post-war average price adjustment of five times for 15%, the biggest market is more than 20%, the prices are expected to average adjustment should be more than history. Us house prices to by the end of 2009 will hit bottom, when prices than in the second quarter of 2006, the peak level at least 20 percent decline.
(2) the subprime crisis caused loss continues
Participate in subprime-related products investment is the main global financial institutions, thus to calculate the subprime losses caused by the direct method is to calculate the amount of loss of financial institutions. But because the subprime mortgage and structured investment products related derivatives of loss depends on the overall prices. Because of falling home prices, and the prediction by subprime and related products, as well as the complex pack for damage estimates range, which are not unified opinions, so it is difficult to losses caused by the subprime crisis is an accurate estimate. To be sure, but now the global financial institutions have plan about 900 billion dollars in subprime losses. As prices continue to fall, and the subprime defaults, the rise of the investment amount of subprime provisions. 12 bulge-bracket major financial institutions to subprime dial forehead already prepared from November 2007 estimated at $24 billion to $750. For global financial market and in the subprime crisis in the amount of damage estimates in increasing. The newest estimate about 50 billion dollars, well above the fed initially estimated 10 million, but this is not the highest estimate (see chart 1).
(3) by the subprime crisis triggered global capital market will continue to adjust
Subprime crisis, the influence of the global capital markets were significantly unrest. Since the middle of 2007 the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis erupted after the main index, global market appeared by more than 20% (see chart 2). But the southeast Asian financial crisis and the new economic bubble burst and the crisis in the global capital market adjustment range is still limited, the future market still have further adjustment of space.
As in the southeast Asian financial crisis in 1997, as the storm center of east Asia countries, including severe losses of capital market is the most serious loss of Kuala Lumpur index fell by nearly 80%, Hong Kong's hang seng index fell 48% in Jakarta, Indonesia, Malaysia, 54 index fell in Kuala Lumpur index fell 79%.
To compare the new economic bubbles in the stock market. In the 1990s dotcom stocks after the failure of traditional theories of prosperity, constantly nasdaq market experience one and a half years of decline, fell by nearly 80 percent. Asia-pacific markets hit also appeared above 30% drop.
But since the outbreak of the subprime crisis, the dow Jones industrial average adjustment range 19.41% only, the nasdaq index adjustment range 24.68% only. As a source of crisis of America's capital markets adjustment range is far less than asia-pacific capital market. Compared with the previous crisis, as the biggest influence by the market, the crisis of its adjustment range should not place, the future with subprime losses sustained exposure, America and global stock markets will continue to adjust.
(4) American recession possibility is further intensified
A series of bad data and the deterioration of credit market that America's economy is step by step to slip into recession. The real estate market and the financial turmoil to deep tone negative impact on the economy more and more widely, also in deepening. This will lead to consumers and investors' confidence, probably expected self-realization through the economy into recession. At the same time, because of the global economy and the U.S. financial markets remains profound influence. Will an American recession drag the world economy as the main risk decline. And because the price adjustment is a lengthy process, American consumer and GDP of recovery will also relatively slowly. The subprime market generally expected to led the American economy into a "U" shaped into recession. We believe, even in the subprime crisis to financial institutions to damage the bottom, the U.S. economy will resume normal growth needs at least 2 years of time.
Second, the subprime crisis through three channels to affect China's economy
(a) the subprime crisis, one of China's import and export trade channels:
1, the subprime crisis caused by the world economic slowdown will lead China's external demand dropped significantly, export big challenge
Subprime crisis of the U.S. economy last year, in the fourth quarter, its temperature has significant manufacturing, housing and employment and consumption are in weakness. American economy cooling and the subprime crisis, also began to slow the growth of the world economy. The international monetary fund to cut its to the United States this year and the world economic growth forecasts. Meanwhile, the fed continued to slash rates of economic behavior to save $also accelerated depreciation. The slowdown in the us economy and the dollar action, will give our export growth brings great challenges. Our latest empirical studies show that if imports from the United States, China export will be 10% drop down, If a 10% appreciation of RMB exchange rate, China export will decline 7%, But if the exchange rate appreciation for 20%, China export will decline 10.5%. Do drop for China's sustained economic growth pose a challenge.
2 and export under the big challenge, should see some positive changes
First, the export of economic growth rate dropped to China's economic development mode change. Although this may export growth for inner and outer environment and decline, but domestic consumption and investment of steady growth in exports to compensate the adverse effect of long-term development, our country's economy will not be too big effect. But, exports to GDP growth rate of decline in some extent can change the original excessive dependence on China's economic growth of economy, make domestic economic growth from the original economy to push for change, the domestic drive economic development mode change is a good thing.
Second, the changes in the structure of export trade in China to America's economy to reduce dependence, also reduced sharply American economy into recession negative influence on the economic growth in China. Due to the continued appreciation in the yuan against the dollar and the euro's continuing decline in exports, foreign trade structure has changed a lot. The European Union has replaced the United States as in 07 years China's largest trading partner in the eu, and trade surplus also gradually replacing trade surplus with America, become the main source of trade surplus. In 2007, the year of the foreign trade in China than the share of ascension, and the corresponding 0.5%, America and Japan's trade shares fell one percent and 0.9 percentage points. Due to the present to the European Union trade growth of trade growth more than doubled in the future, the trade will continue to dramatically trade. Beauty, The weak us economy caused by external demand on China's export sector cold will reduce the negative impact.
(2) the subprime crisis affect China's psychological and expected no.2: channel
The subprime crisis affect China's second channel is affected by the consumers and investors expected to affect the psychology and the stability of China's financial market. We from two aspects of the banking sector and capital market analysis to the subprime mortgage crisis through psychological and expected channels of financial market in China.
1, China banking in subprime losses in smaller is one-time directly
The subprime crisis of the Chinese banking industry is not big, directly affected market.covering subprime-related products of domestic Banks, with the three icbc construction, according to the information disclosed publicly, as at December 31, 2007, the three Banks subprime-related holdings of the face value of the assets 49.90 billion respectively, 12.26 billion dollars, 10.62 billion (three quarterly data). The amount and the three Banks of total assets and total capital is not higher than (see chart 3). By holding subprime products in most cases. Among all the subprime holdings related assets be converted into renminbi is about 364.54 billion yuan. And among the after-tax profits for 2007 560.29 billion yuan, even among subprime-related products all losses in its annual performance also won't appear losses. But icbc and CCB for subprime product is small, even more investment proportion of full provision will not affect its 2007 pre-tax profits of 8%. Overall, the domestic banking investments overseas subprime products limited, and the amount of no use leverage, therefore, the loss is completely in can withstand range. But so far the subprime crisis to hold the subprime assets of commercial Banks, the influence is one-time has sunk costs, does not belong to the future of the business activities of the influence. Too much
2, the subprime crisis influence on Chinese financial investment investor confidence
When many financial institutions for the subprime crisis, consumers in the faith of financial institutions, it will blow can affect whole financial business environment. For overseas agencies of the commercial Banks, the effect may be more obvious. The duration of the subprime crisis in China is longer, the influence of financial management environment. In addition, the subprime crisis to investor confidence. Due to financial institutions in the subprime crisis, its stocks become seriously damaged the massive funds. But foreign financial prices sharply nature would undermine domestic investors to financial holdings confidence. Although China's financial institutions in the subprime losses rather small, but directly in the recent stock market of our country, the adjustment process as the a-share market weight of the largest financial sector has been leading the market adjusting range can tell the future financial investors for lack of confidence. Three holding subprime assets bank stock recently appeared around 40 per cent drop in the fall, H shares more than 45%, (see table 4).
China's capital market, subprime crisis happened concussion
Capital market is a market, market confidence and psychological. Therefore, the negative expectations may even through the capital market "herding effect" further amplification. This phenomenon in the subprime crisis in further proved. Although China's stock market is still a relatively close, but the market with the increasingly strengthen international capital flows, the international capital market in China stock market fluctuations of linkage effect and psychological effects may be further increased. Due to the subprime mortgage crisis in the market of China's economic future growth, plus the confidence in China's capital markets, the rises also exist within the required technical adjustment. When the subprime crisis triggered global market turmoil, China is not only to survive and even become the biggest market worldwide decline. The Shanghai composite index, the highest since last November, 6124.04 point to March 20, 2008 3516.33 point of recent lows, 42.58% rate adjustment. Earlier in the biggest drop in Hong Kong's hang seng index was close to 40 percent. China's capital market adjustment range than developed countries and worldwide market average range, it also shows that, the subprime crisis of confidence in China's economy through channels effect may be far outweigh its actual effect of economic entity. But as the subprime losses on exposure period, entering international capital markets to the shocks of a-share market may be more frequent.
还有一半,要的话就M我
A, the subprime crisis has not really see bottom
There is every indication of the subprime crisis, now still in development process, is far from over.
(a) as the subprime crisis, the American real estate prices eventually source not stabilises
Only when the subprime crisis as the fuse is the direct real estate prices eventually stabilises, real estate equity problems to provide support for mortgage-backed securities, the crisis will end. Real estate prices stabilises will eventually eliminate uncertainty, because the market is expected loss will no longer, but known, main source will be eliminated. When the credit market and capital market financing function will slowly back to normal, and the financial system to achieve stability.
But so far, far from American house prices of stabilising the trend. In the fourth quarter of 2007 housing purchase price OFHEO drop two consecutive quarters, and compared by expanding. The fourth quarter of the 50 states in 49 states have appeared name in house prices, suggesting that prices nationwide weakness. According to the Case - Shiller index, since 2000 to housing adjustment of 2006 mid-term, before 10 cities 126.3% price has risen, and adjust range is only by 11.4 per cent. Worse housing supply and demand gap still at high level (see chart 1), stock prices caused by high downward pressure to drop further price, so the space is large. From the historical experience, American post-war average price adjustment of five times for 15%, the biggest market is more than 20%, the prices are expected to average adjustment should be more than history. Us house prices to by the end of 2009 will hit bottom, when prices than in the second quarter of 2006, the peak level at least 20 percent decline.
(2) the subprime crisis caused loss continues
Participate in subprime-related products investment is the main global financial institutions, thus to calculate the subprime losses caused by the direct method is to calculate the amount of loss of financial institutions. But because the subprime mortgage and structured investment products related derivatives of loss depends on the overall prices. Because of falling home prices, and the prediction by subprime and related products, as well as the complex pack for damage estimates range, which are not unified opinions, so it is difficult to losses caused by the subprime crisis is an accurate estimate. To be sure, but now the global financial institutions have plan about 900 billion dollars in subprime losses. As prices continue to fall, and the subprime defaults, the rise of the investment amount of subprime provisions. 12 bulge-bracket major financial institutions to subprime dial forehead already prepared from November 2007 estimated at $24 billion to $750. For global financial market and in the subprime crisis in the amount of damage estimates in increasing. The newest estimate about 50 billion dollars, well above the fed initially estimated 10 million, but this is not the highest estimate (see chart 1).
(3) by the subprime crisis triggered global capital market will continue to adjust
Subprime crisis, the influence of the global capital markets were significantly unrest. Since the middle of 2007 the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis erupted after the main index, global market appeared by more than 20% (see chart 2). But the southeast Asian financial crisis and the new economic bubble burst and the crisis in the global capital market adjustment range is still limited, the future market still have further adjustment of space.
As in the southeast Asian financial crisis in 1997, as the storm center of east Asia countries, including severe losses of capital market is the most serious loss of Kuala Lumpur index fell by nearly 80%, Hong Kong's hang seng index fell 48% in Jakarta, Indonesia, Malaysia, 54 index fell in Kuala Lumpur index fell 79%.
To compare the new economic bubbles in the stock market. In the 1990s dotcom stocks after the failure of traditional theories of prosperity, constantly nasdaq market experience one and a half years of decline, fell by nearly 80 percent. Asia-pacific markets hit also appeared above 30% drop.
But since the outbreak of the subprime crisis, the dow Jones industrial average adjustment range 19.41% only, the nasdaq index adjustment range 24.68% only. As a source of crisis of America's capital markets adjustment range is far less than asia-pacific capital market. Compared with the previous crisis, as the biggest influence by the market, the crisis of its adjustment range should not place, the future with subprime losses sustained exposure, America and global stock markets will continue to adjust.
(4) American recession possibility is further intensified
A series of bad data and the deterioration of credit market that America's economy is step by step to slip into recession. The real estate market and the financial turmoil to deep tone negative impact on the economy more and more widely, also in deepening. This will lead to consumers and investors' confidence, probably expected self-realization through the economy into recession. At the same time, because of the global economy and the U.S. financial markets remains profound influence. Will an American recession drag the world economy as the main risk decline. And because the price adjustment is a lengthy process, American consumer and GDP of recovery will also relatively slowly. The subprime market generally expected to led the American economy into a "U" shaped into recession. We believe, even in the subprime crisis to financial institutions to damage the bottom, the U.S. economy will resume normal growth needs at least 2 years of time.
Second, the subprime crisis through three channels to affect China's economy
(a) the subprime crisis, one of China's import and export trade channels:
1, the subprime crisis caused by the world economic slowdown will lead China's external demand dropped significantly, export big challenge
Subprime crisis of the U.S. economy last year, in the fourth quarter, its temperature has significant manufacturing, housing and employment and consumption are in weakness. American economy cooling and the subprime crisis, also began to slow the growth of the world economy. The international monetary fund to cut its to the United States this year and the world economic growth forecasts. Meanwhile, the fed continued to slash rates of economic behavior to save $also accelerated depreciation. The slowdown in the us economy and the dollar action, will give our export growth brings great challenges. Our latest empirical studies show that if imports from the United States, China export will be 10% drop down, If a 10% appreciation of RMB exchange rate, China export will decline 7%, But if the exchange rate appreciation for 20%, China export will decline 10.5%. Do drop for China's sustained economic growth pose a challenge.
2 and export under the big challenge, should see some positive changes
First, the export of economic growth rate dropped to China's economic development mode change. Although this may export growth for inner and outer environment and decline, but domestic consumption and investment of steady growth in exports to compensate the adverse effect of long-term development, our country's economy will not be too big effect. But, exports to GDP growth rate of decline in some extent can change the original excessive dependence on China's economic growth of economy, make domestic economic growth from the original economy to push for change, the domestic drive economic development mode change is a good thing.
Second, the changes in the structure of export trade in China to America's economy to reduce dependence, also reduced sharply American economy into recession negative influence on the economic growth in China. Due to the continued appreciation in the yuan against the dollar and the euro's continuing decline in exports, foreign trade structure has changed a lot. The European Union has replaced the United States as in 07 years China's largest trading partner in the eu, and trade surplus also gradually replacing trade surplus with America, become the main source of trade surplus. In 2007, the year of the foreign trade in China than the share of ascension, and the corresponding 0.5%, America and Japan's trade shares fell one percent and 0.9 percentage points. Due to the present to the European Union trade growth of trade growth more than doubled in the future, the trade will continue to dramatically trade. Beauty, The weak us economy caused by external demand on China's export sector cold will reduce the negative impact.
(2) the subprime crisis affect China's psychological and expected no.2: channel
The subprime crisis affect China's second channel is affected by the consumers and investors expected to affect the psychology and the stability of China's financial market. We from two aspects of the banking sector and capital market analysis to the subprime mortgage crisis through psychological and expected channels of financial market in China.
1, China banking in subprime losses in smaller is one-time directly
The subprime crisis of the Chinese banking industry is not big, directly affected market.covering subprime-related products of domestic Banks, with the three icbc construction, according to the information disclosed publicly, as at December 31, 2007, the three Banks subprime-related holdings of the face value of the assets 49.90 billion respectively, 12.26 billion dollars, 10.62 billion (three quarterly data). The amount and the three Banks of total assets and total capital is not higher than (see chart 3). By holding subprime products in most cases. Among all the subprime holdings related assets be converted into renminbi is about 364.54 billion yuan. And among the after-tax profits for 2007 560.29 billion yuan, even among subprime-related products all losses in its annual performance also won't appear losses. But icbc and CCB for subprime product is small, even more investment proportion of full provision will not affect its 2007 pre-tax profits of 8%. Overall, the domestic banking investments overseas subprime products limited, and the amount of no use leverage, therefore, the loss is completely in can withstand range. But so far the subprime crisis to hold the subprime assets of commercial Banks, the influence is one-time has sunk costs, does not belong to the future of the business activities of the influence. Too much
2, the subprime crisis influence on Chinese financial investment investor confidence
When many financial institutions for the subprime crisis, consumers in the faith of financial institutions, it will blow can affect whole financial business environment. For overseas agencies of the commercial Banks, the effect may be more obvious. The duration of the subprime crisis in China is longer, the influence of financial management environment. In addition, the subprime crisis to investor confidence. Due to financial institutions in the subprime crisis, its stocks become seriously damaged the massive funds. But foreign financial prices sharply nature would undermine domestic investors to financial holdings confidence. Although China's financial institutions in the subprime losses rather small, but directly in the recent stock market of our country, the adjustment process as the a-share market weight of the largest financial sector has been leading the market adjusting range can tell the future financial investors for lack of confidence. Three holding subprime assets bank stock recently appeared around 40 per cent drop in the fall, H shares more than 45%, (see table 4).
China's capital market, subprime crisis happened concussion
Capital market is a market, market confidence and psychological. Therefore, the negative expectations may even through the capital market "herding effect" further amplification. This phenomenon in the subprime crisis in further proved. Although China's stock market is still a relatively close, but the market with the increasingly strengthen international capital flows, the international capital market in China stock market fluctuations of linkage effect and psychological effects may be further increased. Due to the subprime mortgage crisis in the market of China's economic future growth, plus the confidence in China's capital markets, the rises also exist within the required technical adjustment. When the subprime crisis triggered global market turmoil, China is not only to survive and even become the biggest market worldwide decline. The Shanghai composite index, the highest since last November, 6124.04 point to March 20, 2008 3516.33 point of recent lows, 42.58% rate adjustment. Earlier in the biggest drop in Hong Kong's hang seng index was close to 40 percent. China's capital market adjustment range than developed countries and worldwide market average range, it also shows that, the subprime crisis of confidence in China's economy through channels effect may be far outweigh its actual effect of economic entity. But as the subprime losses on exposure period, entering international capital markets to the shocks of a-share market may be more frequent.
还有一半,要的话就M我
展开全文阅读