问题描述：
英语翻译
Did Trade Linkages Play a Role?
We also estimate regressions with the WEO forecast dataset to examine growth revisions for 126 countries,including low-income as well as emerging market countries,and to explore whether other channels,such as trade linkages,mattered for a broader set of countries.
Interestingly,the trade channel appears to matter in this sample.Although the degree of trade openness is not statistically significant,the composition of trade makes a significant difference.In particular,the share of commodities (both food and overall) in total exports is associated with smaller downward growth revisions.The share of manufacturing products in total exports is correlated with worse growth performance both for advanced as well as developing countries.This is consistent with the notion that countries exporting manufacturing goods to advanced countries seem to have been hit hard by the decline in demand from these markets,while countries exporting food appear to have fared better.
However,in line with the results using the Consensus forecasts,the trade channel does not seem to be important for emerging markets.When including interaction variables of the trade measures and a dummy for emerging markets,these interaction terms enter with a coefficient of similar magnitude but opposite sign,implying an overall effect of zero for emerging market countries.
Financial vulnerabilities also have a statistically significant effect on the growth revisions in this sample,and we now find that a larger stock of lending from advanced countries contributed to a more severe downward revision of the growth forecast.
Robustness Tests
The results are largely robust to changes in periods of Consensus Forecasts changes.Moving from changes in averages to April or to August does not make much difference.Although cumulative credit growth using revisions from April 2008 to 2009 loses its statistical significance,its economic significance is the same.
We also ran regressions with WEO forecast changes using the same set of countries that we used for the Consensus Forecasts sample.The only substantial change in the results is that leverage is no longer significant.As mentioned in the data section,the main difference between Consensus and WEO forecast changes concerns Eastern European countries:the forecast revisions are much larger for these countries in the Consensus dataset than in the WEO data.Given the importance of leverage for this region,the correlation is weaker with more moderate growth revisions in the WEO sample.
Did Trade Linkages Play a Role?
We also estimate regressions with the WEO forecast dataset to examine growth revisions for 126 countries,including low-income as well as emerging market countries,and to explore whether other channels,such as trade linkages,mattered for a broader set of countries.
Interestingly,the trade channel appears to matter in this sample.Although the degree of trade openness is not statistically significant,the composition of trade makes a significant difference.In particular,the share of commodities (both food and overall) in total exports is associated with smaller downward growth revisions.The share of manufacturing products in total exports is correlated with worse growth performance both for advanced as well as developing countries.This is consistent with the notion that countries exporting manufacturing goods to advanced countries seem to have been hit hard by the decline in demand from these markets,while countries exporting food appear to have fared better.
However,in line with the results using the Consensus forecasts,the trade channel does not seem to be important for emerging markets.When including interaction variables of the trade measures and a dummy for emerging markets,these interaction terms enter with a coefficient of similar magnitude but opposite sign,implying an overall effect of zero for emerging market countries.
Financial vulnerabilities also have a statistically significant effect on the growth revisions in this sample,and we now find that a larger stock of lending from advanced countries contributed to a more severe downward revision of the growth forecast.
Robustness Tests
The results are largely robust to changes in periods of Consensus Forecasts changes.Moving from changes in averages to April or to August does not make much difference.Although cumulative credit growth using revisions from April 2008 to 2009 loses its statistical significance,its economic significance is the same.
We also ran regressions with WEO forecast changes using the same set of countries that we used for the Consensus Forecasts sample.The only substantial change in the results is that leverage is no longer significant.As mentioned in the data section,the main difference between Consensus and WEO forecast changes concerns Eastern European countries:the forecast revisions are much larger for these countries in the Consensus dataset than in the WEO data.Given the importance of leverage for this region,the correlation is weaker with more moderate growth revisions in the WEO sample.
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