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英语翻译
Their paper has many strong points.They use Chinese trade as a share of world trade,thus avoiding the use of proxies such as the CPI for trade prices.They control for seasonality and for the effect of the Chinese New Year.They are careful to focus on econometric specifications exhibiting parameter constancy,white noise residuals,and the smallest standard error of the regression (SER).
Their results indicate that an increase in the real effective RMB exchange rate would help to reduce China's trade surplus.
Exchange Rates and Triangular Trading Patterns
The effect of a Chinese appreciation on China's trade balance would be even larger,however,if it led to a generalized appreciation in Asia.This is because China plays a unique role within global trading networks.It imports large quantities of intermediate goods from the rest of East Asia and exports large quantities of final products throughout the world.Table 1 sheds light on China's role in this triangular trading structure.
The data are taken from China's Customs Statistics,which distinguish between imports and exports linked to processing trade and ordinary imports and exports.Imports for processing are goods that are brought into China for processing and subsequent re-export.Processed exports,as classified by Chinese customs authorities,are goods that are produced in this way.Imports for processing are primarily intermediate goods but also include some primary goods and some final goods.They are imported duty free and neither these imports nor the finished goods produced using these imports normally enter China's domestic market.By contrast,ordinary imports are goods that are intended for the domestic market and ordinary exports are goods that are produced using local inputs.
Table 1 shows that in 2005 42% of China's imports were for processing.Of this 42%,seven-tenths came from other East Asian countries.By contrast,less than one-twentieth each came from the U.S.and from the EU.This indicates that the U.S.and the EU do not produce many intermediate goods demanded by China for processing.
The Table also shows that in 2005 55% of China's exports were processed exports.Of this 55% one-quarter went to the U.S.,another one-quarter went to East Asia (excluding Hong Kong),one-fifth went to Hong Kong (largely as entrepot trade),and one-fifth went to Europe.
Because of these trading networks,Chinese value-added in processed exports is about 20%-30%,with the remainder coming from intermediate goods imported from the rest of Asia.Thus a unilateral appreciation of the RMB would not affect the costs of processed final products measured in the importing country's currency and hence China's trade surplus as much as a joint appreciation throughout Asia.
Their paper has many strong points.They use Chinese trade as a share of world trade,thus avoiding the use of proxies such as the CPI for trade prices.They control for seasonality and for the effect of the Chinese New Year.They are careful to focus on econometric specifications exhibiting parameter constancy,white noise residuals,and the smallest standard error of the regression (SER).
Their results indicate that an increase in the real effective RMB exchange rate would help to reduce China's trade surplus.
Exchange Rates and Triangular Trading Patterns
The effect of a Chinese appreciation on China's trade balance would be even larger,however,if it led to a generalized appreciation in Asia.This is because China plays a unique role within global trading networks.It imports large quantities of intermediate goods from the rest of East Asia and exports large quantities of final products throughout the world.Table 1 sheds light on China's role in this triangular trading structure.
The data are taken from China's Customs Statistics,which distinguish between imports and exports linked to processing trade and ordinary imports and exports.Imports for processing are goods that are brought into China for processing and subsequent re-export.Processed exports,as classified by Chinese customs authorities,are goods that are produced in this way.Imports for processing are primarily intermediate goods but also include some primary goods and some final goods.They are imported duty free and neither these imports nor the finished goods produced using these imports normally enter China's domestic market.By contrast,ordinary imports are goods that are intended for the domestic market and ordinary exports are goods that are produced using local inputs.
Table 1 shows that in 2005 42% of China's imports were for processing.Of this 42%,seven-tenths came from other East Asian countries.By contrast,less than one-twentieth each came from the U.S.and from the EU.This indicates that the U.S.and the EU do not produce many intermediate goods demanded by China for processing.
The Table also shows that in 2005 55% of China's exports were processed exports.Of this 55% one-quarter went to the U.S.,another one-quarter went to East Asia (excluding Hong Kong),one-fifth went to Hong Kong (largely as entrepot trade),and one-fifth went to Europe.
Because of these trading networks,Chinese value-added in processed exports is about 20%-30%,with the remainder coming from intermediate goods imported from the rest of Asia.Thus a unilateral appreciation of the RMB would not affect the costs of processed final products measured in the importing country's currency and hence China's trade surplus as much as a joint appreciation throughout Asia.
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